Since the start of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption there has been much speculation about an eruption of its larger neighbour, Katla.
In a report published today, experts from the newly formed UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction warn that with the high frequency of eruptions of Katla, an eruption in the short term is a strong possibility.
The authors add, however, that an eruption of Katla is likely to be preceded by new earthquake activity. Presently there is no such activity under Katla, but there may only be as little as a few weeks to a few months of anomalous activity before an eruption starts.
In the report, earth scientists, engineers, transport experts, statisticians, atmospheric modellers and ethicists have brought together their most recent data and thinking on Icelandic volcanic activity and its wider consequences. It represents the fruits of the first project of UCL’s new multi-disciplinary Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, which has been established to promote understanding of the complexity of risk and to reduce the impact of disasters through collaborative research, teaching and knowledge exchange.
Entitled ‘Volcanic Hazard from Iceland: Analysis and Implications of the Eyjafjallajökull Eruption’, the report concludes that future moderately to highly explosive Icelandic eruptions combined with appropriate weather conditions are highly likely to cause a repeat of the recent air transport disruption. The authors note, however, that due to unpredictability of volcanic activity and weather conditions it is difficult to say when disruption will occur and at what scale.
The report is also critical of the response to the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, describing it as entirely reactive and therefore less effective than it should have been. This was primarily a function of the failure to recognize in advance the potential threat presented by volcanic ash clouds from Iceland. The situation was made worse by the inflexible nature of existing aviation protocols and by the absence of any pre-existing agreement within the aviation community on safe ash levels.
The report recommends that to avoid chaos, ill-feeling and exploitation, regulation should be considered to control the actions of organisations such as airlines at times of emergency. This might include approval of night operations at airports, insistence that no plane flies with empty seats if passengers with valid tickets are stranded, and no increase in fares during the affected period.
The impact of the eruption on airspace could have been predicted and better prepared for as the growing problem of serious aircraft-ash cloud encounters has been recognised for nearly 30 years. Similarly, the potential for ash clouds, specifically from Icelandic volcanoes, to interfere with air traffic in UK, European and North Atlantic air-space was appreciated by the aviation industry well before the start of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption.
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